Royal Caribbean 2Q26: Smoother sailing than expected

Research evidence excerpt

Royal Caribbean 2Q26: Smoother sailing than expected

29 July 2026

Richard J. Clarke, FCA

+44 20 7676 6850

Global Hotels & Leisure richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd Niall Mitchelson

+44 20 7676 7144

Rating niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Lasith Siriwardana

Price Target +44 20 7550 2191

lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com

RCL 355.00 USD

Royal Caribbean reported an impressive Q2, despite a message of demand destruction

Close Date 28 Jul 2026

related to the Middle East conflict since the 1Q print and a soft 3Q guide (flat yields), they

RCL Close Price (USD) 322.50

were able to take up the FY EPS by ~3%. Much has been made of the necessity for a material

Price Target (USD) 355.00

4Q inflection in yields, but yesterday’s message was that, underlying, the year is far less

Upside/(Downside) 10%

choppy than this implied: “the timing of new ships, deployment changes, drydock days,

52-Week Range 366.50/232.10

capacity, the changes and mixes between Caribbean and Europe” are a 200bps headwind

SPX 7,428.78

in Q3 and a 200bps tailwind in Q4, i.e. ex these mix impacts, the Q4 yield inflection required

FYE Dec

is <1%, which looks achievable as conflict headwinds abate. They also gave a positive

Div Yield 1.9%

message on 2027 saying that demand is strong at higher prices, and they will hit their

Market Cap (USD) (M) 86,492

Perfecta targets. The three year Perfecta guidance was given in March 2025 when, in a

EV (USD) (M) 109,360

pre-conflict environment, fuel prices were 25% lower, yields were growing >5% and there

was some expectation of a positive impact from Perfect Day Mexico in FY27. To hit these Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

numbers despite material changes to the demand, cost and mix environments is impressive. Absolute (%) 15.6 1.4 10.6 (8.4)