China Economic Perspectives: AI is reshaping China’s trade story – upgrading 2026 trade forecasts

Research evidence excerpt

China Economic Perspectives: AI is reshaping China’s trade story – upgrading 2026 trade forecasts

Global Research

30 July 2026ab

China Economic Perspectives Economics

ChinaAI is reshaping China’s trade story – upgrading

2026 trade forecasts Jennifer Zhong

Economist

jennifer-a.zhong@ubs.com

+86-105-832 8324

AI has emerged as a key driver of China’s trade Yu Song

China’s trade performance has consistently exceeded market expectations in 2026, with Economist

exports recording 18% YoY and imports 26% in 1H. We believe AI-related trade is the S1460526010002

yu-za.song@ubs.commain driver, contributing nearly half of total export and import growth in 1H. The

+86-10-5832 8508

strength has been driven more by prices than volumes, reflecting an undersupplied

market and product upgrading. A significant portion of China’s AI trade is conducted William Deng

with neighbouring economies in the region, facilitating both imports and exports and Economist

william-w.deng@ubs.comunderscoring China’s deeper integration into the global tech supply chain.

+852-2971 6765

Resilience extends beyond AI Grace Wang

Non-AI exports rose 11% YoY in 1H, driven by strong overseas sales of green products

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(batteries, solar, power equipment, etc.) as well as a surge in auto shipments, particularly grace-zc.wang@ubs.com

EVs and hybrid vehicles. Consumer goods exports failed to match this momentum. Non- +86-105-832 8335

AI imports jumped 19% YoY led by gold, oil and other commodities, all supported by

price increases. We expect this price tailwind to fade later in 2026.

Upgrade 2026 trade growth forecasts

Reflecting sustained AI-led export strength and resilience elsewhere, we now expect

exports to grow around 18% in 2026 in nominal USD terms. The strong AI-related