Tikehau Capital SCA (TKOO.PA): Post IH26 - Another Heavy Miss; Cutting Estimates Again

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Tikehau Capital SCA (TKOO.PA): Post IH26 - Another Heavy Miss; Cutting Estimates Again

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29 Jul 2026 17:57:16 ET │ 16 pages

Tikehau Capital SCA (TKOO.PA)

Post 1H26 - Another Heavy Miss; Cutting Estimates Again

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral Tikehau’s 1H26 results, released post-market, saw earnings >20% below

consensus, driven by lower balance sheet returns as well as asset Price (29 Jul 26 17:30) €17.06

management earnings. AUM are also below expectations, following Target price €18.00

limited activity and net new money.After 1Q26, we argued that 2026 Expected share price return 5.5%

targets looked challenging, and Tikehau has acknowledged the Expected dividend yield 5.0%

environment must improve if it is to achieve those milestones. While this is Expected total return 10.5%

is understandable, given the change in market environment, we still think

Market Cap €3,012M investors could be disappointed, given how recently Tikehau set targets.

US$3,454M Following results, we cut FY26E EPS by 14% but make smaller changes to

future years (see report for details). We have a Neutral recommendation;

we are broadly in line with consensus medium-term estimates (Figure 1).

While valuation is not demanding, equally, we see few near-term catalysts Nicholas HermanAC

and note investors can buy other highly discounted and capital-light +44-20-7986-4203

private markets managers with better fundamentals and earnings nicholas.herman@citi.com

visibility for similar multiples.

Andrew Lowe, CFA

+44-20-7986-4042

2026 Targets Heavily Dependent On Improved Environment — Tikehau did not andrew.lowe@citi.com

reiterate FY26 targets set in February, namely AUM >€60bn, management fee-

related earnings (FRE) €175-225m, and net profit €420-520m, but now refers to Hannah Leivdal