2Q26: Pressured Customers, Unflappable Franchisees

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26: Pressured Customers, Unflappable Franchisees

IdeaMhelpful for the stock at the moment and we'd consider the results not much worse

than feared, but it still does assume sequential improvement (we model this, though

not back to positive SSS until 2027) and therefore that the fresh push on marketing

and value messaging, which was tested in 2Q, can be effective. Seeing this will be

critical for the stock through the balance of the year - we do think WING has a gap

here, and we are optimistic it can start to gain traction. Remain OW, PT reduced on

lower estimates here, even though bottom line managed to beat in 2Q on G&A/

consistent unit growth.

Other Takeaways: 1) Value messaging to be more prominent in 2H with loyalty

starting to ramp. After gauging consumer response to various value offers and

messages in 2Q, WING expects to dial up the frequency in 2H. WING can provide an

average price of $8pp in group settings, believing this should resonate with core and

new customers in this macro environment. Loyalty launched last month will also

factor into the messaging, where enrollments have exceeded expectations by 22%,

as it allows for scalable personalization. 70% of Club Wingstop members within the

core customer base (lower income, younger) are said to have already revisited a

store since launch. This could provide upside to our estimates if it continues. 2)

Lower income markets struggling. Roughly 55% of domestic system units are in

more urban areas, per WING's classification, where consumers are feeling more

inflation and gas price pressure - digital visits declined by 9%, to that point, per the

company. We can't compare this directly to peers or the industry and it doesn't

directly measure the lower income cohort, so it's hard to rely on this, but it seems