AMG Critical Materials NV (AMG.AS)

Research evidence excerpt

AMG Critical Materials NV (AMG.AS)

Flash |

29 Jul 2026 13:44:14 ET │ 13 pages

Q2'26 results - EBITDA beat and full year 2026 guidance upgrade

CITI'S TAKE

Buy Q2'26 results for AMG came in ahead of expectations with reported

EBITDA at $92 million, doubling vs last quarter and 27% ahead of VA Price (29 Jul 26 16:30) €26.90

consensus. The EBITDA beat was led by better earnings across all three Target price €52.00

divisions with lithium business delivering significant sequential increase. Expected share price return 93.3%

Volume recovery in the lithium business was ahead of expectation with Expected dividend yield 3.7%

the company alluding to June month production run-rate implying Expected total return 97.0%

annualised production at 130ktpa. Net debt at $440 million declined 26%

Market Cap €985M q/q and was in line to our expectations. AMG has revised its full year

US$1,122M EBITDA guidance to $230-250 million, up from $210-240 million earlier.

We believe that earnings beat should be well received by the market,

potentially driving positive revisions for the full year 2026 VA consensus.

We remain Buyers of the stock. Ephrem RaviAC

+44-20-7986-2462

Lithium business delivers solid operating results — AMG has shipped 35kt ephrem.ravi@citi.com

spodumene in the lithium business, significantly higher than 13kt in the last quarter. Krishan M Agarwal

Catch up from delayed shipments last quarter and steady increase in operating

+44-020-7986-4092

performance were the key drivers for higher shipments. Spodumene ASPs increased

krishan.agarwal@citi.comto $1,285/t, higher q/q, but below our expectation. We believe that lag effect from

pricing should catch up in Q3'26 shipments. Volume ramp up and higher tantalum Ijeoma Ihuegbu