Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Result: More Room for Upside on NIM; Remain OW

Research evidence excerpt

Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Result: More Room for Upside on NIM; Remain OW

Idea

July 29, 2026 05:34 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMUMB Financial Corp | North America Brian Wilczynski, CFA

Equity Analyst

Quick Take on 2Q26 Earnings Brian.Wilczynski@morganstanley.comManan Gosalia +1 212 761-1084

Manan.Gosalia@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4092

Result: More Room for Upside

UMB Financial Corp (UMBF.O, UMBF US)

Midcap Banks | United States of Americaon NIM; Remain OW

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Price target $159.00

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Shr price, close (Jul 27, 2026) $140.97

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $10,711

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher 52-Week Range $148.31-103.38

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

A high-quality beat in 2Q, and we expect further core NIM

expansion with strong loan growth continuing in 2H26. Remain

Overweight as our thesis continues to play out.

On the Quarter: Operating EPS of $3.30 beat MS / Consensus of $3.08 / $3.12,

driven by higher than expected net interest income and fees, partially offset by

higher expenses. We back out $27 mil of securities gains from our Operating EPS

(+27c impact to EPS included in the company's reported $3.57 EPS). Core net

interest income (excluding PAA) of $505 mil was in line with our estimate, loan

production hit another record, and deposit costs were stable; an overall strong

quarter for UMBF.

Looking Ahead:

1) We see more core NIM expansion coming in 2H; above UMBF's guidance and

Consensus.

• We are modeling another 3bps of core NIM expansion Q/Q in 3Q26, putting

us above the company's guidance for the core margin to be relatively flat.