Mercedes-Benz (MBG GR): Buy: It could be worse, it should be better

Research evidence excerpt

Mercedes-Benz (MBG GR): Buy: It could be worse, it should be better

Equities ● Automobiles

29 July 2026

After the Q2 call – key messages from management

Cars (outlook and H2 drivers): Target to grow ex‑China, supported by product launches that

are progressing well and further momentum from new model ramp-ups. China weakness

underpins lower sales guidance. For H2 margin, tailwinds are expected from stronger new

model momentum (particularly in Q4, supported by current order intake), but offset by continued

headwinds from parts supply, weaker at-equity JV results vs H1, tariff normalisation (as Q1

benefited from an IEEPA refund), higher input costs (energy/freight/raw materials), and higher

depreciation as new model production starts, offset by stepped-up efficiency initiatives. All in all,

the 3-5% RoS FY26 guide is confirmed, with an expectation to land in the lower half.

Vans (outlook and H2 drivers): For H2, the company expects positives from higher volumes

and better mix, partially offset by higher costs linked to the VLE ramp-up and raw material costs.

As a result, H2 margin is expected to be below H1, while the full-year RoS guidance remains 8-10%.

China impairments: The China equity-stakes related valuation charge was described as the

result of impairment testing, reflecting market and cost developments and pointing to lower

future profitability of the JVs. The charge is non-cash and not driven by a strategy change

(MB remains fully committed to China).

GLE localisation/GLC EQ in China/ASP development: On localisation and product actions,

the China-specific GLE is planned to start production in August (increased wheelbase, rear-seat

focus); this should partially shift parts cost structure to China, which is beneficial. Management