China internet: LLM TAM Sizing: Putting a number on the opportunity

Research evidence excerpt

China internet: LLM TAM Sizing: Putting a number on the opportunity

28 July 2026

China internet EquitiesInternet Software & Services

LLM TAM Sizing: Putting a number on the opportunity China

◆ Given market concerns over returns of AI spending, we size-up Charlene Liu*

the global and China LLM market Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Limited, Singapore Branch

◆ We find China’s To-B LLM market is c.13% of global; run three charlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg

+65 6658 0615

scenarios with no set timeframes to assess its full potential

Nicolas Cote-Colisson*

MD, Head of Global Tech Platforms

◆ We see upside to Alibaba’s 2030e growth target; retain Buy HSBC Continental Europe

nicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com

+44 20 7991 6826

Why and how are we sizing-up the LLM market? Since 2Q26, the market has Ritchie Sun*, CFA

been taking a more critical view of potential returns from the massive AI spending by Analyst, Internet Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

hyperscalers, including Alibaba. Hence hyperscalers’ shares have underperformed AI ritchie.k.h.sun@hsbc.com.hk

infrastructure names, especially hardware names, y-t-d. However, our sizing exercise +852 2822 4392

shows the potential is big enough to justify investments by the Chinese hyperscalers Christina Chen*, CFA

Analyst, Internet Research

– the global and China for businesses (To-B) LLM TAM is USD1.4trn and The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

USD178bn in our base case. We size up the To-B total addressable market (TAM) christina.z.chen@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2822 2912

using a seat-based approach where we multiply the number of knowledge workers by

paying ratio and average annual revenue per paying user (ARPPU) (Details on page