2Q26 First Take: Miss On Margins; H2 DPS 1.10 < MSe

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 First Take: Miss On Margins; H2 DPS 1.10 < MSe

Update

July 29, 2026 07:29 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MSaudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC | Europe Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 First Take: Miss On Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.comSylvia C Richards +44 20 7677-9886

Research Associate

Sylvia.Richards@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3354

Margins; H2 DPS 1.10 < MSe Giulia Faro

Giulia.Faro@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7581

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC (2010.SE,

Weakens our thesis Meaningful shortfall Modest revision lower

SABIC AB)

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS EEMEA - Chemicals | Saudi Arabia

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View No Rating

Price target SAR 64.50

Key Takeaways Shr price, close (Jul 28, 2026) SAR 51.30

52-Week Range SAR 64.00- 48.20

2Q26 revenue of SAR24.8bn missed Visible Alpha consensus by -2% and MSe by Mkt cap, curr (mn) SAR 153,900

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* SAR 15,912

-13%, as +41% y/y pricing only partly offset a -33% volume decline. EV, curr (mn)* SAR 193,162

SABIC increased east-to-west polymer flows by +150%, supported by the Red Sea * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Express service and alternative logistics partnerships.

Adj. EBITDA of SAR3.4bn missed MSe/consensus by -23%/-19%, with SABIC Agri

EBITDA -65% below MSe on weaker volumes.

Higher logistics, transport and conflict-related costs added further pressure.

FCF turned negative at SAR1.4bn on working-capital build, while H2 DPS of

SAR1.10 fell below MSe of SAR1.15.

Bottom-line: negative. SABIC posted a challenged set of results for 2Q26,

reflecting three full months of supply-chain disruption.