REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Beyond the print:
Research evidence excerpt
Beyond the print:
21% above consensus on FY27E to
52 Week range EUR 352.76-207.05FY28E EPS. Our FY26E EPS remains below consensus due to the H1 miss in below-the-line items.
These revisions increase our price target to €310 from €300.
Beyond the print: Back to the future with 68% EPS CAGR: With greater confidence in the
stabilisation of the business model, investor focus should increasingly shift to the medium term
opportunity. We forecast approximately 8% revenue CAGR, supported by Gucci’s plan to
increase sales densities across a more focused store base towards roughly €41k per square
metre by 2030 (Figure 1), alongside improving productivity across the rest of the FLG portfolio. Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Bloomberg
We expect EBIT margin to double from FY25 levels to 22.2% by FY29, one year ahead of the Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting
target outlined at CMD (Figure 2). Store rationalisation should structurally lower the cost base,
with personnel expenses declining at around 2% CAGR, lease depreciation falling at a similar European Luxury Goods & Specialty
pace and G&A growth remaining below sales growth, after declining -8% in FY26. Part of these Retail
savings should be reinvested into A&P, which we expect to remain stable at around 8% of sales. Viktoria Petrova
We forecast EBIT CAGR of approximately 29% and EPS CAGR of more than 68% over FY27 to +49 (0)69 7161 1052
FY29, driven by operating leverage and sustained cost savings. viktoria.petrova@barclays.com
BBI, Frankfurt
Filippo Croce
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies +44 (0)20 3555 2994
covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a filippo.croce1@barclays.com
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