3Q26 - Stronger than Expected TTV Result

Research evidence excerpt

3Q26 - Stronger than Expected TTV Result

Update

July 29, 2026 06:47 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MHBX Group International PLC | Europe Mark Hyatt

Equity Analyst

3Q26 - Stronger than Expected Mark.Hyatt@morganstanley.comGeorge W Webb +44 20 7677-3663

George.Webb@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2686

TTV Result William Richards

Research Associate

William.Richards1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0269

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Jamie Rollo

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher Jamie.Rollo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3281

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

HBX Group International PLC (HBX.MC, HBX SM)

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Technology - Software & Services | Spain

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Key Takeaways Industry View In-Line

Price target €7.90

TTV growth of +12% y/y in cc came in better than expected (2% above consensus) Shr price, close (Jul 28, 2026) €7.61

52-Week Range €11.68-5.62

as the company saw a "gradual recovery in previously disrupted travel corridors" Mkt cap, curr (mn) €1,880

Net debt (09/26e) (mn)* €311

With the take rate down c. 1pp y/y (due to commercial actions/mix changes), EV, curr (mn)* €2,285

revenue growth remained negative at -3%; better than expected due to better * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

TTV

With a stronger than feared Q3, management has narrowed the top line

guidance. TTV mid-point increases c. 1pp, revenue mid-point up c. 50bps

CEO Huss has announced he will retire as CEO. Current CFO Brennan will

become interim CEO from October 1st. We think this will come as a negative

surprise.

We expect the results to be well received, albeit partially tempered by the

management changes. We expect the stock to outperform today.