2Q26: A good quarter

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26: A good quarter

Update

July 29, 2026 05:55 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MUBS Group AG | Europe Giulia Aurora Miotto, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26: A good quarter Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.comFranco Insausti, CFA +44 20 7425-5344

Franco.Insausti@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3769

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

UBS Group AG (UBSG.S, UBSG SE)

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher

Banks | Switzerland

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Underweight

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Industry View Attractive

Price target SFr 39.00

Shr price, close (Jul 28, 2026) SFr 42.44

Key Takeaways 52-WeekMkt cap, currRange(mn) SFr 44.44-US$168,05628.25

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* -

Beat is driven by IB, as expected following the US IB results season, but GWM & EV, curr (mn)* US$168,327

non-core also beat, while AM & Corporate Centre miss

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Group capital is a 30bps miss, but CET1 increases 50bps in the parent

Inflows in the US have remained positive, albeit low, and pre-tax margin in GWM

US is already ahead of the 15% target

2Q26: 10% underlying PPOP beat. UBS has printed a strong quarter – underlying

revenues were 3% better than consensus, with a particularly strong performance in

the IB, although GWM & non-core also beat. Costs were 1% worse than consensus,

provisions were a 13% beat, leading to an underlying 11% PBT beat. Capital was a

30bps miss, although it already deducts $3bn buyback (vs consensus estimate of

$1.5bn). UBS is confident in outperforming the RoCET1 of 15% exit rate for 2026, on

track to achieve the 2026 exit rate C/I target of <70%, and upgrades NII growth in

GWM, which is now expected to grow modestly in Q3.