Iqvia Holdings Inc | North America Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Iqvia Holdings Inc | North America Risk Reward Update

ey Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 28

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $305.00 BASE CASE $240.00 BEAR CASE $170.00

Accelerated topline growth and share gain Data Centric Strategy Gains Share Growth misses the mark

Biotech funding environment rebounds Biotech funding environment rebounds and Slower growth due to potential loss or

faster than accepted. AI becomes a catalyst pharma clinical trial pipelines drive growth. delay of large R&DS contracts. AI negatively

for pharma drug discovery, leading to more Commercial Solutions rebounds to +MSD changes traditional CRO business models by

molecules in the pipeline and more clinical growth fueled by demand for AI/Data reducing pharma's need for outsourcing.

trials. Accelerated topline growth and services. Base Case PT is based on a 12.5x Commercial Solutions contracts fail to

margin expansion driven by Technology and EV/EBITDA multiple off our Base Case 2027 materialize. Bear Case valuation based on a

RWE offering. In addition, peer consolidation EBITDA. 10.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on our Bear Case

leads to disruptions in customer 2027 EBITDA.

relationships and share gain for IQV's CRO

business. Bull Case valuation is based on a

14.5x EV/EBITDA multiple on our Bull Case

2027 EBITDA.