Truck Stop/TLFI: A New Normal Emerges

Research evidence excerpt

Truck Stop/TLFI: A New Normal Emerges

Update

July 29, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreight Transportation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Truck Stop/TLFI: A New Normal Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Emerges Madison J Pasterchick

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Our TLFI continued to underperform due to the demand

Freight Transportation

component this update, despite remaining at all-time highs for North America

this time of year. Reefer and Flatbed indices both decreased seq., Industry View In-Line

while Reefer performed inline with typical seasonality and Please see all charts in This Week's Key Charts

Flatbed underperformed typical seasonality. Please find the MS TLQURE forecast in Section

4 and see here for more on the QURE model.

MS TLQURE: We have updated our QURE model for the month of July and vs. our Previous Truck Stop Report: Truck Stop/TLSS:

prior model to account for a structural shift in market dynamics that has emerged An Odyssey, Not a Sprint (22 July 2026)

since 2023. Our new base case prediction is that truck rates will move to $2.48 in 6

months (currently $2.42) and move to $2.52 in 12 months. Please find the full

updated MS TLQURE forecast in Section 4, additional detail on our updated model

here, and here for more information on the QURE model.

Our TLFI continued to underperform this update, marking the fourth

underperformance in a row and in the last ten updates. Our index decreased seq.

and underperformed for the fourth time in a row due to the demand component,

while the supply component performed ~inline. Despite a decrease seq., our index