Truck Stop/TLFI: Everything in Moderation

Research evidence excerpt

Truck Stop/TLFI: Everything in Moderation

Update

July 1, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreight Transportation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Truck Stop/TLFI: Everything in Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Moderation Madison J Pasterchick

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Our TLFI continued to underperform due to both the demand

Freight Transportation

and supply component this update, despite remaining at all-time North America

highs for this time of year. Reefer and Flatbed indices both Industry View Attractive

decreased seq. and underperformed normal seasonality. Please see all charts in This Week's Key Charts

Please find the MS TLQURE forecast in Section

MS TLQURE: We have updated our QURE model for the month of July and vs. our

4 and see here for more on the QURE model.

prior model to account for a structural shift in market dynamics that has emerged

Previous Truck Stop Report: Truck Stop/TLSS:

since 2023. Our new base case prediction is that truck rates will move to $2.48 in 6

Half-Time Break (24 June 2026)

months (currently $2.37) and move to $2.52 in 12 months. Please find the full

updated MS TLQURE forecast in Section 4, additional detail on our updated model

here, and here for more information on the QURE model.

Our TLFI continued to underperform this update, marking the second

underperformance in a row in the last eight updates. Our index decreased seq. for

the second time in the past four updates and posted an underperformance for the

second time in a row due to both the demand and supply component. This is also

the second underperformance in a row for the demand and supply component.