Thoughts Post 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

Thoughts Post 2Q26

tock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 28

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $550.00 BASE CASE $395.00 BEAR CASE $270.00

~30x ~$18 EPS in out years ~25x '26e EBITDA/~30x 26e EPS ~25x Bear Case 2027 EPS of ~$11

+LDD SSS in 2H27+ with share gains 2026 macro remains challenging at the Prolonged geopolitical conflict and tariffs

stepping up amidst a sharp recovery for US intersection of weak US housing data and lead to recession and higher raws, but not

housing post rate cuts. Price ahead of raws geopolitical conflict. Protection on raw mats materially lower interest rates. Rate cuts

in 2026, followed by raws reversion in 2027. through 2Q, followed by price to offset limited by inflation and will definitively be

Price continues, setting the stage for record headwinds in 2H26. Conviction in PSG share higher for longer, which pushes out the

margins/profits. Weather and painter opportunity set/earnings power unchanged housing recovery. Residential repaint

availability accommodative. CBG/DIY up LSD with a difficult macro likely further demand falls off, and existing home

in 2H27+ and PCG margins >20% behind enhancing the share opportunity. CBG/DIY sales/housing starts turn increasingly

strong volume. Significant share repos. demand soft with some margin headwind negative.