LIRA: Outlook Still Calling for Slowing Growth into 1H27

Research evidence excerpt

LIRA: Outlook Still Calling for Slowing Growth into 1H27

Idea

July 23, 2026 01:20 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSherwin-Williams Co. | North America Vincent Andrews

Equity Analyst

LIRA: Outlook Still Calling for Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.comSteven K Haynes, CFA +1 212 761-3293

Steven.Haynes@morganstanley.com

Slowing Growth into 1H27

Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW.N, SHW UN)

Chemicals | United States of America

Stock Rating Overweight

Harvard's Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA – see full release HERE) Industry View In-Line

Price target $385.00

forecasts modest growth in 2026 (+2% Y/Y), but continues to show a somewhat Shr price, close (Jul 22, 2026) $319.91

Mkt cap, curr (mm) $79,660

of a slowdown into 1H27 (up <1%). This morning's press release continued to cite

52-Week Range $379.54-289.91

flattening growth in both remodeling permits and home improvement retail sales as

key drivers of cooling renovation activity. Likewise, the current status quo of lower

housing starts and broad economic uncertainty is expected to limit stronger gains in

remodeling spending going forward (i.e., largely in-line with the outlook provided by

coatings companies in recent weeks and months).

As we have highlighted in the past, there is no statistical significance between

LIRA and Sherwin's paint store SSS (r-squared of 0.43 since 2007) as LIRA is

purely a quantitative assessment that could understate demand when harder to

quantify variables (e.g., "Aging in Place 2.0" and Sherwin share gains) start to play a

bigger role. Likewise, the heightened level of broader macro uncertainty in the

forward outlook that LIRA's backward looking methodology will be slow to capture.

Note that the r-squared between LIRA and HIRS (Home Improvement Retail Sales) is