STAG Industrial Inc (STAG.N): STAG‘s Q2 Earnings: A Story of Incremental Gains and Steady Execution

Research evidence excerpt

STAG Industrial Inc (STAG.N): STAG‘s Q2 Earnings: A Story of Incremental Gains and Steady Execution

STAG Industrial Inc (STAG.N)

28 July 2026 Citi Research

STAG Industrial Inc

Valuation

We value STAG triangulating among NAV, AFFO multiples, and dividend growth valuations. Our target price of $40 assumes a

~18x 2026E AFFO multiple. We apply less of a premium vs. other industrial peers given STAG’s secondary and tertiary locations

and growth profile more exposed to external deal flow.

Risks

In a potential recessionary environment, industrial REIT earnings could be negatively impacted by development and leasing

delays, slower transaction markets, stock price volatility, and capital markets availability. Additionally, if the leasing

environment deteriorates for industrial real estate in STAG’s markets, this could cause the stock to underperform our earnings

estimates, and our target price could therefore prove to be too high.

We see other risks specific to STAG including: (1) externally driven growth is harder to plan and execute and competition for

deals remains high, (2) acquisitions have and will be funded with equity which creates an ongoing overhang on shares, (3)

internal growth has been hampered by large tenant vacates weighing on sentiment, and (4) geographic exposure in secondary

and tertiary markets is harder to underwrite and makes identifying comps challenging. These factors could cause earnings to

trend downward and shares could underperform our target. Stronger-than-expected growth in STAG’s markets could lead to

increased leasing activity and/or rental growth causing better earnings growth which could result in outperformance vs. our

target price. In addition, if private market cap rates compress more than we anticipate, the stock could outperform our target