MediaTek (2454 TT): Hold: Enticing ASIC opportunity but uncertainty looms

Research evidence excerpt

MediaTek (2454 TT): Hold: Enticing ASIC opportunity but uncertainty looms

USD9.2bn) assumes 180k CoWoS and ASP of USD4,500. However, some bullish 52-WEEK PRICE (TWD)

sell-side expectations exceed USD20bn in 2027e, which may be too aggressive 5100.00

considering tightness of back-end capacity. We also expect an even bigger variance in

2900.00

2028e ASIC revenue expectations with some bullish sell-side estimates approaching

USD50bn vs our estimate of USD35.1bn. We believe visibility or conviction over 700.00

07/25 01/26 07/26

2028e ASIC revenue remains limited given the lack of back-end supply chain visibility Target price: 4250.00

High: 4640.00 Low: 1145.00 Current: 3680.00

from CoWoS or Intel’s EMIB ramp-up. We also believe there remains uncertainty over

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

magnitude of Google TPU ASP increasing from USD4,000-5,000 with Zebrafish to

USD12,000-15,000 with Humufish, given uncertainty over HBM memory procurement, Frank Lee*

which has a significant impact on 2028e ASIC revenue forecasts. Global Head of Tech Hardware & Semi Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Maintain Hold; raise TP to TWD4,250 (from TWD2,605): We raise our EPS frank.lee@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6916

estimates 6% in 2026e and 42% in 2027e to reflect higher ASIC revenue

Ted Lin*

assumptions. Given the increased focus on AI ASIC vs MediaTek being historically a Analyst, Taiwan Technology

smartphone-driven company, we continue to believe a consolidated target PE HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited

ted.ht.lin@hsbc.com.tw

multiple approach is no longer suitable. Hence, we derive our revised TP of +886 2 6631 2870

TWD4,250 (from TWD2,605) based on a SOTP PE, valuing the core and ASIC Pulkit Aggarwal*