China Real Estate: Centaline luncheon: Turning the corner

Research evidence excerpt

China Real Estate: Centaline luncheon: Turning the corner

price expectations may spill over to upgrader products in not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

secondary market. A broad-based price recovery hinges on macro recovery and market

sentiment improvement. Meanwhile, a large pipeline of affordable housing could divert

demand away from the mass market. Ms. Qiu believes the high-end market has largely

stabilised, and Shenzhen’s housing market is now in the final stage of bottoming out.

Zhuhai: limited price downside amid structurally higher local demand. The

buyer mix has undergone a structural change: local demand historically represented

c20%, but now accounts for c80%, mainly because non-local investment demand has

contracted sharply. Notably, solid rental yields of 2.5-3% for select projects make

home purchases an attractive long-term asset allocation choice. Mr. Zhou expects

robust demand from both price-sensitive local buyers and select external upgraders,

such as Hong Kong buyers, to help set a floor for home prices, and sees limited

downside from here. In addition, the Hong Kong Government’s proactive push to

encourage retirees to move to the Greater Bay Area should channel retierment and

elderly-care demand into Zhuhai, providing an upside driver for housing market.

Signals to watch for “Golden September, Silver October”. 1) Policy continuity:

While we don’t expect large-scale policy stimulus, a continued supportive policy

stance is necessary to stabilise homebuyers’ expectations and sustain sales

momentum into the peak season. 2) Land market: With limited new launches in 2H,

property sales are unlikely to surprise on the upside. Price expectations could be

supported by aggressive bidding for premium plots and rising land cost.

HSBC view.