US Insurance: Refining estimates and TPs

Research evidence excerpt

US Insurance: Refining estimates and TPs

28 July 2026

US Insurance EquitiesInsurance

Refining estimates and TPs United States

◆ We update our models following the June releases from Allstate Vikram Gandhi*, CFA

and Progressive, and 2Q26 results from Chubb and Travelers Senior Analyst, US Financials HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

vikram.gandhi@hsbc.co.in

◆ Travelers’ 2Q26 results as well as strong outlook have been the +91 80 45552430

biggest positive surprise for us this earnings season so far Dmitriy Leskin

Analyst, US Financials

HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

◆ We retain our Hold ratings on Allstate, Chubb, Progressive and dmitriy.leskin@us.hsbc.com

Travelers; adjust TPs +1 212 525 4110

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

Allstate: The true-up of the June CAT losses increases our 2026e EPS by c8%. not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

For more details, see our note June 2026 CAT update (16 July 2026). Our 2027-28e

EPS remain virtually unchanged. We retain our Hold rating and nudge up our TP to

USD265 from USD264.

Chubb: We raise our 2026-28e EPS by 1.5% on average, as our slightly improved

COR and investment income forecasts more than offset the slight cut to our life

segment income forecasts. For our initial take on the group’s 2Q26 earnings, see our

note 2Q26 results a small beat (22 July 2026). We retain our Hold rating and raise

our TP to USD377 from USD373.

Progressive: We trim our 2026-28e EPS by 1.3% on average, driven by a

combination of slightly lower PIF as well as NWP per policy. For more details on the

group’s June results, see our note June 2026 earnings update (15 July 2026).

We retain our Hold rating and cut our TP to USD214 from USD221.