1H26 Results - EBITDA soft but Dividend/Net Debt beat

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 Results - EBITDA soft but Dividend/Net Debt beat

Update

July 28, 2026 11:45 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MRio Tinto Plc | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26 Results - EBITDA soft but Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comMorgan Stanley Australia Limited+ +44 20 7425-8959

Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity AnalystDividend/Net Debt beat R.Anand@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1136

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Ferdinand Huber

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

Adahna Ekoku

Key Takeaways Equity Analyst

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

EBITDA misses consensus estimates by ~2% in spite of the copper beat; EPS/DPS

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

beat on lower P&L taxes. Michael A Stancliff

Research Associate

Net Debt beat on lower utilisation of provisions, cash taxes, and higher Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

contribution from minority partners.

Rio Tinto Plc (RIO.L, RIO LN)

Guidance items remained broadly unchanged with the exception of lowered P&L

Metals & Mining | United Kingdom

taxes.

Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View In-Line

1H26 EBITDA broadly in line; Copper the standout. Underlying EBITDA of US Price target 6,600p

Shr price, close (Jul 27, 2026) 6,832p

$14.83bn was broadly in line with MSe and 2% below company-compiled consensus. 52-Week Range 9,117-4,345p

Copper EBITDA of US$5.71bn beat MSe and consensus by 8-9%, supported by better Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$147,913