Global Macro Commentary | North America July 28: Oil Retreat, Tech Rotation

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary | North America July 28: Oil Retreat, Tech Rotation

Update

July 28, 2026 10:05 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | North America Molly Nickolin

Strategist

July 28: Oil Retreat, Tech Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Rotation Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

Oil fell on potential US-Iran de-escalation; global yields declined;

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Fed uncertainty remained elevated; Asian technology shares Gek Teng Khoo

underperformed; US equities rotated defensively; KRW and CLP StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

gained; DXY at 101.39 (-0.1%); US 10y at 4.61 (-4.2bp).

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Hiromu UezatoPotential progress toward reopening regional shipping routes reduced the

energy risk premium, supporting global duration and broader equity Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

participation even as semiconductor weakness weighed on Asian markets and

the Nasdaq. Luyao Liu

Developed Markets Luyao.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4827

• US rates bull-steepened as lower oil prices, weaker consumer confidence, Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Jasper Knyphausen

and technology-sector weakness supported demand for duration (2y: - Strategist

3.5bp; 30y: -4.8bp). Brent and WTI declined 4.5% and 4.1%, respectively, Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185

after reports of potential diplomatic progress between the US and Iran and

discussions aimed at restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. July

consumer confidence fell to 90.8 versus expectations of 92.4, while the

labor-market differential reached its lowest level since early 2021. Markets