F3/27 1Q Results Preview: Favorable Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

F3/27 1Q Results Preview: Favorable Outlook

Idea

July 28, 2026 12:37 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MBrokers & Other Financials | Japan Atsuro Takemura

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results Preview: Atsuro.Takemura@morganstanleymufg.comMia Nagasaka +81 3 6836-5429

Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8406

Favorable Outlook

1Q outlook strong overall. We expect Mitsubishi HC Capital and

Marui Group, both facing tough YoY comps, to be re-rated more

favorably once they clear their 1Q earnings results. Brokers & Other Financials

Japan

We have revised our earnings forecasts for four financial services companies. Based Industry View In-Line

on valuations and potential news flow, our order of preference is: Mitsubishi HC What’s Changed

Capital (OW) > Credit Saison (OW) > Marui Group (OW) > ORIX (EW) > AEON Orix (8591.T) From To

Financial Service (UW). Overall, our outlook heading into 1Q earnings is Price Target ¥5,300 ¥6,900

constructive. We expect Mitsubishi HC Capital and Marui Group, in particular, to be Mitsubishi HC Capital

(8593.T) From To

well positioned for a post-earnings re-rating as they clear their 1Q results.

Price Target ¥1,690 ¥1,870

Orix: We lift our PT from ¥5,300 to ¥6,900 and stay EW. In terms of BPS, gains Credit Saison (8253.T) From To

expected to be booked by 2Q (incl. valuation gains) appear to be largely priced in. Price Target ¥5,200 ¥5,700

However, with strong earnings progress expected in both 1Q and 2Q, we believe the

share price is likely to remain resilient through 1Q results. Our higher PT is mainly

due to 1) rolling forward the base year from F3/26 to F3/27; and 2) raising our fair-

value P/B multiple from 1.3x to 1.4x, reflecting higher expectations for ROE growth.