AB-InBev (ABI.BR): Risk/reward skewing positively into results. We expect solid US OSG/profit delivery and upcoming CMD to be supportive.

Research evidence excerpt

AB-InBev (ABI.BR): Risk/reward skewing positively into results. We expect solid US OSG/profit delivery and upcoming CMD to be supportive.

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28 Jul 2026 07:00:00 ET │ 16 pages

AB-InBev (ABI.BR)

Risk/reward skewing positively into results. We expect solid US

OSG/profit delivery and upcoming CMD to be supportive.

CITI'S TAKE

ABInBev is on-track to deliver against consensus FY26E estimates and we Buy

expect management to reiterate its FY26E 4-8% organic EBITDA guidance

at its July 30th Q2/H1 results. We forecast Q2 volumes growth of +0.6%, held Short-Term View: Upside, expires 12-AUG-26

back by China. Elsewhere, and despite the earlier than perhaps hoped exit Price (28 Jul 26 09:09) €72.40

of some ABInBev market teams from the global football tournament, we Target price €79.00expect solid Q2 volume delivery; especially in LatAm and the US. Crucially,

the US business should report solid share gains, strong growth from Beyond Expected share price return 9.1%

Beer and accelerating on-premise volume trends. These factors mean we Expected dividend yield 2.0%

think Q2 US OSG may beat consensus. Given the stock’s relative under- Expected total return 11.1%performance over the last month, some de-grossing of hedge fund long

positions and with the September’s CMD likely to be supportive, (favorable Market Cap €146,193M

evolving US portfolio mix story, hidden value in BEES), we think the US$166,200M

risk/reward is skewing positively into the print. We reiterate our Buy rating.

Q2 Football Tournament volume benefits potentially tempered by China

weakness — Despite a likely uplift to Q2 and FY26E volumes from the global football Price Performance

tournament, the unwind of Q1’s Easter benefit (mainly in Mexico, SA and Europe) (RIC: ABI.BR, BB: ABI BB)