Beer’s Final Score: FIFA World Cup | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Beer’s Final Score: FIFA World Cup | Europe

Idea

July 16, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MFIFA World Cup | Europe Sarah Simon

Equity Analyst

Beer’s Final Score Sarah.Simon@morganstanley.comRichard Li +44 20 7425-6064

Research Associate

Richard.Li@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1976

With the end of the FIFA World Cup 2026 around the corner, we Tilly Eno

re-run our model on global beer volumes and the effect on the EquityTilly.Eno@morganstanley.comAnalyst +44 20 7677-3662

brewing corporates in our coverage. David J Roux

David.Roux@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1040

Key Takeaways Chris Linford, CFA

We now see a +17bps global beer volume uplift, below our previous estimate of Chris.Linford@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1639

+24bps, as early exits in large markets outweighed stronger European runs

Beverages

Carlsberg is the clearest positive surprise, supported by deep runs by the UK, Europe

Industry View In-Line

France, Switzerland and Norway teams

ABI’s LatAm upside was lower than expected after Brazil’s exit, though this is well

understood and sponsorship remains supportive

Heineken and Royal Unibrew see limited net change, as regional positives and

negatives broadly offset

Q3 sell-in may need to adjust to sell-out, creating risk where performance fell

short of expectations, especially in Brazil, Germany, Portugal & the Netherlands

The World Cup is nearly complete. With the semi-finals finished and only the third-

place play-off and final left, nearly all of the material matches for beer consumption

have now been played. Our framework, as highlighted in our previous report,

continues to point to "deep runs" as the key driver, with ~70bps of FY beer volume

growth uplift per game from the quarter-finals onwards for each country, vs only