Risks as clear as crude oil

Research evidence excerpt

Risks as clear as crude oil

FICC Research

Interest Rates

28 July 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global

inflation markets.

Jonathan Hill, CFA

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US CPI: News of a cessation of strikes between the US and Iran to give space for diplomacy

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

drove a sharp sell-off in energy futures on Monday, translating into a bear steepening of the US BCI, US

breakeven and CPI swap curves. That said, the situation clearly remains fluid. Tomorrow brings

Apostolos Apostolouthe July FOMC meeting, and the market continues to price in a c.35-40% probability of a hike.

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Friday is month-end and Bloomberg projects the duration extension of the 1-30y Series-L TIPS

apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

index to be 0.20y, in line with our projection. BCI, US

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: In supply, Italy will today auction up to €3bn of the new-issue BTP€i37.

Data this week include preliminary July inflation readings from Spain and Germany on

Thursday, and France, Italy and the euro area aggregate on Friday. Friday is month-end.

Bloomberg has not yet released its duration extension projections for the euro government

inflation-linked index.

UK RPI: Thursday brings the July MPC meeting, and Barclays economists expect the MPC to

hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with a minority group preferring to hike 25bp. They also note that "A

reintroduced central forecast for inflation could show a medium-term undershoot, while

guidance is likely to remain cautious and limited, focussing on upside risks from geopolitics."

Data this week include Lloyds price expectations, and the Nationwide house price index. Friday

is month-end, and, as with the euro area, Bloomberg has not yet released its duration extension