2Q26 First Take: All-round Beat: Higher Prices > Lower Volumes; 1H Div $150mn = MSe

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 First Take: All-round Beat: Higher Prices > Lower Volumes; 1H Div $150mn = MSe

Update

July 28, 2026 05:14 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MFertiglobe PLC | Europe Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 First Take: All-round Beat: Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.comSylvia C Richards +44 20 7677-9886

Research Associate

Sylvia.Richards@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3354

Higher Prices > Lower Volumes; Giulia Faro

Giulia.Faro@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7581

1H Div $150mn = MSe

Fertiglobe PLC (FERTIGLB.AD, FERTIGLB DH)

EEMEA - Chemicals | United Arab Emirates

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Stock Rating Overweight

Strengthens our thesis Meaningful upside Modest revision higher Industry View No Rating

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Price target AED 4.10

consensus EPS Shr price, close (Jul 27, 2026) AED 2.67

52-Week Range AED 3.85- 2.35

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Mkt cap, curr (mn) ND

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$825

EV, curr (mn)* -

Key Takeaways

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Despite three months of disruption, revenue of SAR1,086mn beat MSe/

consensus by +4%/+13% as stronger prices offset logistics pressure.

Own-produced urea/ammonia volumes fell +3%/+5% q/q, while 100kt of urea

shipments shifted into early 3Q26, limiting reported Q2 volumes.

Route diversification and added storage supported production; exports reached

~56% of UAE output.

EBITDA of SAR372mn beat MSe/consensus by +12%/+7%, though the 34.2%

margin trailed consensus at 36.4% reflecting third-party traded volumes rising

+87% y/.

Management proposed a minimum $150mn 1H26 dividend (DPS $0.018), in-line

with MSe.

Bottom-line: positive. Fertiglobe posted a strong set of results for Q2, which was