AstraZeneca Post Q2, H2 pipeline higher risk, but expectations low, and we see attractive setup into ‘27 readouts, hence remain OW

Research evidence excerpt

AstraZeneca Post Q2, H2 pipeline higher risk, but expectations low, and we see attractive setup into ‘27 readouts, hence remain OW

Barclays | AstraZeneca

gastric/GEJ patients. However, AZN's EPI study suggests 80% of the 2L+ patients are from

China, which might potentially limit its commercial uptake. AZN has guided to $3-5bn peak

sales potential for son-ved, where we think a meaningful proportion of this commercial

opportunity is likely dependent on successful expansion into earlier lines of treatment,

particularly the ongoing Phase III 1L CLARITY-Gastric02 study, which is not expected to

complete until 2029. We also note c.80% of Gastric patient reside in China, where pricing will

be lower, and there could be some local competition in time. Hence we model below AZN's

peak potential guidance. We now model c.$1.5bn peak sales potential for son-ved, with 70%

POS overall, accounting for 1.3% NPV.

3. H2'26: Camizestrant Oral SERD SERENA-4 for Hormonal Breast cancer Phase 3. AZN

have already reported strong Phase 3 data from the SERENA-6 trial in ESR1 mutated 1st

Breast cancer, but SERENA-4 is looking to broaden that success to include endocrine-

sensitive patients without ESR1 mutations as well. ROP's negative persevERA trial in a

similar population has led the market to take a very negative view on SERENA-4. While we

are cautious into the data readout, we believe there is some chance this trial could still

surprise to the upside should the molecule be more potent and the trial better enriched in

patient type, while noting the c.50% better powering. We now model 30% POS of $3bn for

SERENA-4.

4. Late H2'26: Datroway TROP-2 ADC AVANZAR TROP2 for Lung cancer Phase 3: Where we

see good risk/reward, given the market's negative / cautious view, and given recent