European Economic Comment: European PMIs up strongly, but can it last?

Research evidence excerpt

European Economic Comment: European PMIs up strongly, but can it last?

Global Research

24 July 2026ab

European Economic Comment Economics

Europe including UKEuropean PMIs up strongly, but can it last?

Reinhard Cluse

Economist

Strong PMIs, but survey period began before the latest geopolitical tensions reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

The Eurozone Composite PMI rose 1.9 points to a 5-month high of 51.9, significantly

exceeding expectations (50.2), thanks to a pick-up in both manufacturing and services. Franziska Fischer

EconomistComposite PMIs in both Germany and France surprised to the upside, while the rest of

franziska.fischer@ubs.com

the Eurozone saw the strongest result in 8 months, according to S&P Global. The +41-44-239 2054

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose 0.6 points to 52.0 with strong details: manufacturing

output (+1.3 to a 52-month high of 53.0), new orders (+0.6 to 50.9), new export orders Felix Huefner

(+0.2 to 49.9) and employment (+0.8 to 49) were all up. The Service PMI was up 2.2

felix.huefner@ubs.com

points to 51.6, not least thanks to a strong pick-up in new business. At the aggregate +49-69-1369 8280

level, employment recorded modest gains for the first time in 6 months, new orders

expanded again for the first time since February, one-year business expectations Anna Titareva

continued to strengthen, and both input and output price inflation eased. Nevertheless,

anna.titareva@ubs.com

in our view, this encouraging news should be interpreted with some caution. The survey +44-20-7568 5083

period ran from 9 to 22 July and therefore began several days before the renewed

escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the sharp increase in energy

prices. As a result, we would at least partly discount today's stronger-than-expected PMI