2Q26 preview: the unusual suspects

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 preview: the unusual suspects

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Brazilian Financial Institutions

Estimate Change

Uneven effects of elevated interest rates 21 July 2026

Earnings in 2Q26 should reflect the uneven effects of elevated interest rates. On the Equity

negative side, banks and payment companies should be pressured by high provisions and Brazil

subdued volume growth. In contrast, capital market-related names (historically viewed as Financial Institutions

beneficiaries of lower rates) should post resilient results, supported by increasingly Mario Pierry

diversified revenue streams. Insurers are likely to post mixed results. Research Analyst

BofAS

Banks: high provisions, modest revenue generation +1mario.pierry@bofa.com646 743 0047

Loan growth should remain subdued, limiting NII acceleration, while provisioning Antonio Ruette >>

expenses are likely to stay elevated amidst macro uncertainty - even as asset quality Research Analyst

metrics remain broadly under control, partially supported the gov’t renegotiation Merrill+55 11Lynch2188 (Brazil)4225

program (Desenrola). SANB and BBAS should be the negative highlights, while BBDC antonio.ruette@bofa.com

should stand out, posting sequential ROE evolution. ITUB and INTR are likely to post Augusto Uehara >>

Research Analyst

uninspiring results. On Nubank, all eyes on the risk-adjusted NIM improvement. Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

+55 11 2188 4651

augusto.uehara@bofa.comNonbanks: solid quarter for BPAC, B3SA and CXSE

BPAC and B3SA should deliver solid results, while XP should continue to post weak Ernesto Gabilondo >>

revenue growth. STNE and PAGS should face headwinds from elevated funding costs Merrill Lynch (Mexico)

and credit provisions, with only modest TPV growth acceleration. Among insurers, CXSE +52 55 5201 3428