Delivery/Logistics - Japan: 1Q preview: Limited scope for positive surprises; focus remains on pricing trends

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Delivery/Logistics - Japan: 1Q preview: Limited scope for positive surprises; focus remains on pricing trends

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Delivery/Logistics - Japan

1Q preview: Limited scope for positive

surprises; focus remains on pricing trends

Estimate Change

Market expectations for 1Q may be too high 21 July 2026

We believe expectations for 1Q results at both SG and Yamato are slightly too high and Equity

expect 1Q OP to come in below consensus. Yamato should deliver YoY OP improvement Japan

in 1Q, although we still expect it to remain loss-making. SG's monthly volume trends Delivery

appear to be tracking above the company's plan and global segment performance could Hiro Nakakura, CFA >>

also surprise positively. However, due to the change in cost recognition timing, we still Research Analyst

expect 1Q OP to decline slightly YoY, with stronger earnings growth weighted toward Merrill+65 6678Lynch0972(Singapore)

2H. Overall, we expect relatively muted 1Q results. While Japan Post's recent retail price hiro.nakakura@bofa.com

hike announcement could improve the industry's pricing environment, it may be too early Nathan Gee, CFA >>

Research Analyst

to see any meaningful impact in 1H. We leave our earnings estimates largely unchanged Merrill Lynch (Singapore)

and make no changes to our ratings or POs for either Yamato or SG. nathan.gee@bofa.com

Amy Han >>

Yamato: Pricing and cost reduction trend to watch ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Hong Kong)

Yamato had already indicated that 1Q delivery volumes would be weak as it amy.han@bofa.com

implemented price increases, but the actual decline in 1Q volumes (-3% YoY) was Hazel Xue >>

somewhat greater than we expected. Given the decline in lower-yielding corporate BofAS Japan