The Question Remains: Can the Private Sector Electrify Mexico?

Research evidence excerpt

The Question Remains: Can the Private Sector Electrify Mexico?

is expected to be 58% off-CFE balance sheet financing CC: Combined-cycle power plant

(US$16.5bn), 25% budgetary resources (US$7bn), and 17% CFE on-balance sheet CFE: Comisión Federal de Electricidad

financing (US$4.7bn). We believe this plan is a necessary first step but more will be CENACE: Centro Nacional de Control de

needed to meet MX’s electric needs, which may need to be private sector investments. Energía

CNE: MX National Energy Commission

Looking ahead: PPAs, issuance & policy implementation (Comisión Nacional de Energía)

This report examines future opportunities and risks for sector players, including CNH: MX National Hydrocarbons

sovereign, regulatory and operational. We will be watching how the govt. implements the (Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos)

Reform and handles regulatory centralization. We also see PPA expirations between CFE CRE: Now dissolved, MX Independent

and IPPs in 2026-2030 (est. >10GW capacity expiring), creating re-contracting risk but Energy Regulator (Comisión Reguladora

possible IPP opportunity to negotiate. In the international bond market, we could see de Energía)

continued growth in first-time issuers as new permits are awarded & projects begin. EPC: Electric Power Corporation

GW: Gigawatts

We are positive the sector, focusing on private players IPP: Independent power producer

We are positive on the MX Utilities sector, particularly the private players, given strong LTAs: Long-term agreements

market fundamentals leading to increased need for new capacity. We see opportunity for MMCFD: million cubic feet per day

cont. strong wholesale prices, improved permitting & ability of IPPs to analyze MW: Megawatts

attractiveness of new investment schemes.