Getting close to fair valuation - Moving to Equal-weight

Research evidence excerpt

Getting close to fair valuation - Moving to Equal-weight

Idea

July 28, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Paris Branch+MVeolia | Europe Arthur Sitbon, CFA

Equity Analyst

Getting close to fair valuation - Arthur.Sitbon@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +33 1 42 90 71-03

Marina Fuentes Juan

Research AssociateMoving to Equal-weight Marina.Fuentes.Juan@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2268

Robert Pulleyn What’s Changed

Equity Analyst and Commodity Strategist

Veolia (VIE.PA) From To Robert.Pulleyn@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-4388

Rating Overweight Equal-weight Sarah E Lester, CFA

Price Target €39.00 €38.00 Equity Analyst

Sarah.Lester@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0551

Arthur Descazeaud

Veolia's >11% TSR backed by EPS resilience, self-help and pivot Research Associate

towards growth remains fundamentally attractive. But with the Arthur.Descazeaud1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1282

stock now back to trading in-line with EU utilities, limited scope Veolia (VIE.PA, VIE FP)

for EPS upgrades and no clear catalyst, we move to Equal- Utilities | France

weight and prefer other stories in the sector StockIndustryRatingView Equal-weightAttractive

Price target €38.00

Shr price, close (Jul 27, 2026) €36.05

Key Takeaways 52-Week Range €37.66-27.43

Mkt cap, curr (mn) €26,471

From a low valuation starting point and on the back of good execution and a

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

supportive HALO trade, Veolia shares have performed strongly YTD.

ModelWare EPS (€) 2.06 2.21 2.39 2.56

We think this re-rating is well deserved given the fundamental qualities of Prior ModelWare EPS - 2.18 2.35 2.54

(€)

Veolia's equity story: earnings resilience, successful self-help & growth pivot. EPS (€)** 2.25 2.46 2.66 2.85

Prior EPS (€)** - 2.43 2.63 2.84