A Comprehensive Framework Ahead of French Elections

Research evidence excerpt

A Comprehensive Framework Ahead of French Elections

Foundation

July 28, 2026 04:34 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+MFrance Economics, Macro & Equity Strategy Jean-Francois Ouvrard

| Europe Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe EconomistA Comprehensive Framework Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662817

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Ahead of French Elections Marina Zavolock

Equity Strategist

Marina.Zavolock@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2318

France faces a challenging 12 months with the budget season,

Regiane Yamanari

presidential election (18 April and 2 May 2027) and perhaps snap Equity Strategist

Regiane.Yamanari@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-4652

parliamentary elections around mid-June 2027. So, we see policy Luca Salford

uncertainty remaining elevated for a while. We explore potential Strategist

Luca.Salford@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1337

implications across economics, equities and macro strategy. Maria Chiara Russo

Strategist

Economics | 2027 elections overview: We highlight that polls can change Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3499

Jasper Knyphausenmaterially in the final weeks before a French presidential vote and, in 2022, key

candidates published their manifestos only close to the election. It is therefore too Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185

early to draw any conclusions about the outcome of the next presidential election. David S. Adams, CFA

That said, we believe the degree of fragmentation on the centre-right is likely to be David.S.Adams@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3518

a key determinant of the first-round outcome. After June 2027, parliamentary Aron Becker

arithmetic will determine policy outcomes.