Steel Price Tracker: US steel remains the bright spot amid subdued global demand

Research evidence excerpt

Steel Price Tracker: US steel remains the bright spot amid subdued global demand

Weekly news flow

Asia: Prices mixed w/w; BF op rates at 89.8%

Steel export prices were mixed in China last week, with Chinese exported hot rolled coil

(HRC) up $2/t to $485/t and rebar down $6/t to $490/t. According to BofA’s China Basic

Materials team, ferrous markets rebounded modestly this week, with iron ore and steel

products outperforming while coke remained relatively weak. Sentiment was supported

by supply-side concerns, including potential BHP labor strikes, renewed US-Iran tensions,

and expectations for environmental-related production curbs in Tangshan. However,

underlying demand remained seasonally weak, with slower construction activity in the

property and infrastructure sectors weighing on steel consumption and spot market

trading. Spot rebar cash margins narrowed by RMB25/t w/w to -RMB433/t, while spot

HRC cash margins improved by RMB7/t w/w to -RMB414/t. (see China Basic Materials

latest update). Meantime, Blast furnace (BF) capacity utilization rate among 247 Chinese

steel mills under Mysteel's survey dropped for the second straight week, down by

another 0.8 percentage point to touch a two-month low of 89.8%.

According to Platts, Chinese export HRC was supported by short covering, ongoing

production cuts and higher raw material costs. Still, export demand remained subdued,

with buyers on the sidelines, and declining inventories were insufficient to meaningfully

improve the supply-demand balance. In long steel, billet held steady while rebar slipped,

with participants skeptical about the sustainability of the recent rally.

Türkiye: Rebar holds steady amid very quiet trade

Turkish rebar export prices were flat w/w at $570/t. According to Platts, trade remained