BoJ preview: Shortening the runway

Research evidence excerpt

BoJ preview: Shortening the runway

Vote: unanimous, but hawkish dissent remains a risk

The vote will be the first signal to watch. Our base case is a unanimous decision.

However, we see a meaningful risk of a hawkish dissent from Board Member Takata,

whose long-standing view is that the BoJ’s 2% objective has effectively been achieved,

making it necessary to “shift gears” in removing monetary accommodation. Takata also

proposed a back-to-back rate hike at the January 2026 MPM following the December

2025 hike to 0.75%, making such a dissent unsurprising.

By contrast, we see a lower probability of dovish dissents from Takaichi-appointed board

members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, who will be voting for the first time since

joining the Board in late June. The market impact, however, would likely be larger if

either were to dissent.

Outlook Report: watch the language, not the forecasts

Forecast revisions likely to be mechanical

Forecast revisions in the upcoming Outlook Report are likely to be fairly mechanical. We

expect the FY26 growth forecast to be revised modestly higher, reflecting the stronger-

than-expected Jan-Mar GDP print and resilient Apr-May activity data (see Chartbook (Jun

’26): Output improves, but supply-chain strains linger, 16 July). In contrast, the Board’s

FY26 CPI forecast, which was relatively hawkish compared with both our forecast and

consensus expectations, will likely be revised lower, partly reflecting softer-than-

expected CPI readings at the start of the fiscal year (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: BoJ policy board GDP/CPI forecasts vs. consensus Exhibit 2: Brent crude US$/bbl

We expect FY26 GDP to be revised up and CPI revised down Crude oil prices are higher than they were at the time of the 15-16 June

MPM

BoJ old BoJ new* Consensus**