Banks - Thailand: A broader earnings story

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Banks - Thailand: A broader earnings story

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Banks - Thailand

A broader earnings story

Rating Change

From sequential drivers to multiple earnings engines 27 July 2026 Corrected

Over the past three years, Thai banks have repeatedly adapted to changing operating Equity

conditions. Higher interest rates initially drove NIM expansion in 2023-24. As margins ASEAN | Thailand

subsequently came under pressure, investment gains from excess liquidity deployed into Banks

fixed-income assets, together with prudent reserve overlays, helped sustain earnings. Sarachada Sornsong ^^^

Looking ahead, we expect NIM headwinds to largely fade, while wealth management Research Analyst

fees, lower credit costs and a gradual recovery in loan growth become increasingly Kiatnakin+66 2 305Phatra9197 Securities

important earnings drivers. Throughout this period, banks have also streamlined their sarachada.sorn@kkpfg.com

operating platforms, laying the foundation for the next phase of the earnings cycle.

Combined with robust capital generation, this should support progressively higher

NIM: Net interest marginshareholder returns through regular as well as special dividends.

The earnings mix is more balanced ROE: Return on equity

The sector’s earnings profile is becoming more balanced. As NIM headwinds fade, KTB: Krung Thai Bank

gradually improving loan demand, resilient fee income, lower credit costs and stronger

operating efficiency should collectively support earnings growth. The benefit is not that KBANK: KasikornBank

one driver replaces another, but that multiple earnings engines begin to work

BBL: Bangkok Bank

simultaneously. Reflecting these improvements, we raise our 2026-28 earnings

forecasts on average by 4.2% per annum.