Earnings Tracker: Week 2: Strong results, selective rewards

Research evidence excerpt

Earnings Tracker: Week 2: Strong results, selective rewards

er capex raise, another sell-off $97

$92Google (recap) kicked off hyperscaler reporting in the red (-7% the next day) as capex

$87

concerns overshadowed strong Cloud results. Consistent with Week 1 Tech commentary $82

(see report: Week 1 recap), Google signaled further strength in the AI investment cycle, $77

raising its 2026 capex outlook by 8% and noting that spending is expected to “increase $72 Historical avg.

significantly” again in 2027 (see page 2). With Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft still to $67

report this week, consensus forecasts AI investment driving S&P 500 capex growth

40% YoY in 2Q, up from 33% in 1Q and the highest growth in our data history starting to Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26

in 1987 (see Exhibit 29-Exhibit 30).

Source: FactSet, BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Broad-based beats rewarded, except in Tech BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Beating EPS expectations alone has not been enough to drive strong outperformance

this quarter (+0.5ppt the next day vs. +1.0ppt historical avg.). Companies that beat both Exhibit 2: S&P 500 quarterly EPS

EPS and Revenue earned a healthier reward of 1.2ppt, still slightly below the historical forecasts

avg. of 1.4ppt. Excluding Tech, the reward rises to 1.5ppt. Meanwhile, Tech stocks that Bottom-up consensus vs. our estimates*

beat only EPS expectations lagged by 2.6ppt the next day, while EPS & Revenue beats Btm-up BofA

still underperformed by 1.0ppt (see Exhibit 22). Following several years of strong growth analysts YoY Strategy YoY

and upward revisions, good results are no longer enough to move the needle in Tech so 2024 $243 10% $243 10%

far this quarter. 1Q25 63.68 13% 63.68 13%

2Q25 67.02 11% 67.02 11%

Up next: the busiest week of earnings.