Northern Star Resources: Decisions: reset, simplify or focus.

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Northern Star Resources: Decisions: reset, simplify or focus.

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Northern Star Resources

Decisions: reset, simplify or focus.

Maintain Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 24.00 AUD | Price: 20.56 AUD

Polarised portfolio. Can residual value be matched? 27 July 2026

Consensus has been revising down NST’s smaller, older assets – Kalgoorlie, Jundee, Equity

Carosue Dam and Thunderbox – reallocating value towards KCGM and Pogo. Consensus

valuation for the portfolio excluding KCGM, Hemi and Pogo is +A$7bn or +20% of Kate McCutcheon >> Research Analyst

valuation accounting for +0.75Mozpa. Production expectations for non-core assets have Merrill Lynch (Australia)

been declining and costs lifting, with reserve grades providing a poor proxy of mine +61kate.mccutcheon@bofa.com2 9226 5728

grades i.e. visibility on mine plans is opaque. See charts within. If NST were to simplify Elaine Faddis >>

the portfolio with a new CEO incoming, transaction values may struggle to match Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Australia)

residual values. Simplistically, our database of mine transactions average US$150/oz elaine.faddis@bofa.com

resource or US$485/oz reserve implying ~A$4-5bn on 0.7x FX for the non-core portfolio. Paul Wiggers de Vries

KCGM: upgrades but downgrades? Hemi FY30+. ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Australia)

paul.wiggersdevries@bofa.com

KCGM consensus NAV has risen ~20% on a gold adjusted basis over the past year despite

i) declining production expectations i.e. FY32 is now expected to deliver <900kozpa from ChenResearchJiangAnalyst>>

prior ~950kozpa; and ii) 20% lifts in AISC to ~A$2580/oz. This suggests consensus is Merrill Lynch (Australia)

chen_jiang@bofa.com

extending the mine life. Pogo has also been an outlier seeing gold adjusted upgrades of