Japan transport 1Q preview summary

Research evidence excerpt

Japan transport 1Q preview summary

Accessible version

Transportation - Japan

Earnings Preview

Shipping: Earnings beats & FY guidance lifts 24 July 2026

Japanese shipping (“J3”) 1Q earnings are likely to show strong results benefiting from Equity

recent container spot rate hikes given strong demand and seasonality. Our 1Q recurring Japan

profit estimates are 25-50% above consensus, while we see FY3/27 J3 EPS guidance Transportation

upgrades of up to 60-90% led by ONE with a very strong 2Q net income expected. NYK Nathan Gee, CFA >>

looks best positioned to deliver on shareholder returns with scope to lift FY3/27 DPS up Research Analyst

to ¥295/share and also potentially deliver a ¥50bn buyback, while MOL has room to Merrill+65 6678Lynch0418(Singapore)

deliver on a FY3/27 buyback of up to ¥35bn on our estimates. nathan.gee@bofa.com

Hiro Nakakura, CFA >>

Airlines: Soft quarter, watching 2Q outlook ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Singapore)

Japanese airlines are expected to be post small profits despite Iran war, seasonal and hiro.nakakura@bofa.com

June weather headwinds. FY guidance is unlikely to be changed until J-airlines see peak Amy Han >>

Research Analyst

2Q-3Q quarter earnings. 2Q outlook is key with risks around Japanese outbound leisure Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

demand during peak fuel surcharges in July-August and domestic travel shifts away from amy.han@bofa.com

the traditional Obon holiday period given intense heat. But offsetting these risks into 2Q Hazel Xue >>

will be strong inbound/transit demand and very strong cargo pricing power. BofAS Japan

hazel.xue@bofa.com

Railways: Mostly muted 1Q but watching 2Q trend

We expect 1Q results to be largely muted, with performance broadly in line with