LVS Tracker June-26: A weaker global forecast with painful (EU) implications

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LVS Tracker June-26: A weaker global forecast with painful (EU) implications

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Global Automobiles

LVS Tracker June-26 : A weaker global

forecast with painful (EU) implications

Industry Overview

June: Global LV weakness persists, while BEVs accelerate 24 July 2026

June’s 0.9% y/y rise in global LV sales overstates the underlying performance in our view, Equity

as most regions benefited from one to two additional selling days (Exhibit 5). Adjusted Global

for this calendar effect, we estimate that volumes fell by around 4–5% y/y, led by a 19% Autos/Car Manufacturers

decline in China. Ex-China trends were much healthier, with Western and Central Europe Horst Schneider >>

up 12%, led by Germany and the UK, alongside continued strength in South America and Research Analyst

South Asia. Global LVs also remained in contraction in Q2, down 1.5% y/y as China BofA+49 69Europe5899 (Frankfurt)5080

declined by around 17%. Importantly, the weakness was entirely concentrated in ICE horst.schneider@bofa.com

vehicles, partly reflecting higher fuel costs. By contrast, global BEV sales rose by 17% in Stephen Benhamou >>

Research Analyst

June and 19% in Q2, led by the EU, China and several emerging markets. We expect this BofASE (France)

momentum to continue as Chinese OEMs accelerate their global expansion. 33 1 8770 0293

stephen.benhamou@bofa.com

Ming Hsun Lee, CFA >>Global & China LVS forecast down with scary implications

As shown in Exhibit 8, we now expect global LV sales to decline by 4.7% y/y in 2026 and Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

0.5% in 2027, recovering by 1.4% in 2028. This is materially below our previous forecasts +852 3508 5006 minghsun.lee@bofa.com

of -2.7% and +2.2% for 2026/27 and S&P’s -1.6% in 2026 and 1–2% growth p.a. in 2027/28 Alexander Perry