2Q26 Preview: green shoots seen, but age-up thesis remains unproven

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2Q26 Preview: green shoots seen, but age-up thesis remains unproven

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Roblox Corp. Class A

2Q26 Preview: green shoots seen, but age-

up thesis remains unproven

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 54.00 USD | Price: 52.50 USD

Is RBLX still a 20% Grower? When will we know? 22 July 2026

We reiterate Neutral pending evidence that Roblox can reaccelerate top line growth to Equity

above 20% Y/Y again for the long term. The ability to attract and retain mature

audiences through a robust age-up content ecosystem, or simply proof that under 13

Key Changesaudiences can drive growth would help. At 14x Street CY28 EBITDA, RBLX looks

inexpensive if it can sustain 20%+ growth in 2027 and beyond. Without proof of durable (US$) Previous Current

growth, valuation could fall toward 10x, in line with diversified video game publishers. Price Obj. 48.00 54.00

2026E Rev (m) 7,466.4 7,505.8

2027E Rev (m) 8,959.7 9,006.9We expect reiterated FY guidance

We think the near-term debate centers on CY26 guidance. A raise would signal 2H 2028E Rev (m) 10,751.6 10,808.3

confidence, potentially starting revisions and triggering a short-covering rally. However, 2026E EPS -1.43 -1.41

we expect management to reiterate guidance given 1) 2H uncertainties (age-based 2028E EPS -0.75 -0.76

accounts, S&D changes, and GTA 6 competition) and 2) the need to avoid future

guidance cuts. We raise CY26 Bookings ~1% on stronger-than-expected RoMonitor Omar Dessouky, CFA

Research Analyst

engagement and expect results above midpoint of guide. The mix-driven Y/Y decline in BofAS

Average Bookings per Hour should reverse in 2H as lower-monetizing users acquired +1 646 855 0686 omar.dessouky@bofa.com

through 2025 viral hits, particularly in lower-monetization regions, churn, improving user

Arthur Chu, CFA