HVAC 2Q detailed preview: resi stabilized; applied is data center driven: Earnings Preview

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HVAC 2Q detailed preview: resi stabilized; applied is data center driven: Earnings Preview

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Industrials/Multi-Industry

HVAC 2Q detailed preview: resi stabilized;

applied is data center driven

Earnings Preview

How we are thinking about the 2Q earnings season 24 July 2026

We remain positive on HVAC stocks and expect 2Q EPS will likely come in slightly ahead Equity

of consensus estimates. We also expect FY guides to be raised slightly. We forecast Americas

median 2Q EPS growth of 14% across the five HVAC names we cover, compared with a Industrials/Multi-Industry

10% median for our broader coverage universe. JCI is expected to lead the HVAC group Andrew Obin

with 22% EPS growth, while CARR is projected to have the weakest 2Q EPS Research Analyst

performance, with EPS down 15% y/y. We are forecasting median organic growth for the BofAS+1 646 855 1817

HVAC names +6% vs our coverage median of +5%. MAIR is expected to lead the HVAC andrew.obin@bofa.com

group with 10% organic growth, while CARR is projected to have the weakest 2Q David Ridley-Lane, CFA

Research Analyst

organic growth, down 3% y/y. During 2Q we met with the management teams of CARR, BofAS

LII, MAIR, SPXC, and TT. +1 646 855 2907

david.ridleylane@bofa.com

Europe hot but US below ’25 and ’24 on cooling days DevinResearchLeonardAnalyst

US cooling degree day data indicates that nationally the first half of the selling season BofAS

+1 646 855 3698

(May & June) has been hotter than the historical average but below 2025, 2024, and devin.leonard@bofa.com

2022. Despite the being above the historical average, we do not think the start of the

selling season has been warm enough to help demand for resi HVAC. While Europe

experienced several heat waves beginning in late May, we do not expect a meaningful