The lion still roars: 2Q26 earnings met expectations; rolling over our PO

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The lion still roars: 2Q26 earnings met expectations; rolling over our PO

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Gentera

The lion still roars: 2Q26 earnings met

expectations; rolling over our PO

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 67.00 MXN | Price: 39.68 MXN

2Q26 net income rose 9% YoY; ROAE at 24.5% 22 July 2026

Net income of Ps2.3bn rose 9% YoY (-6% QoQ), coming in 4% below our estimate but Equity

2% above consensus. Despite concerns over weaker April–May trends, 2Q26 results met

expectations, supported by double-digit NII and fee income growth, disciplined cost

Key Changescontrol, and improving asset quality, with NPLs declining QoQ. ROE fell to 24.5% from

25.9% a year ago. Year-to-date earnings reached Ps4.7bn (+12% YoY), broadly in line (MXN) Previous Current

with management’s 13–16% guidance. Peru and ConCrédito remained highly profitable, Price Obj. 63.00 67.00

posting ROAEs of 26.2% and 26.5%, respectively, while CET1 stayed strong at 32%. 2026E Rev (m) 53,699.4 52,849.7

2027E Rev (m) 60,243.6 57,986.0

2028E Rev (m) 67,609.7 63,591.0Lowering estimates to recognize softer individual growth

Under a conservative approach, we lower our 2026 EPS estimate by 3% to Ps5.88 (from 2026E EPS 6.04 5.88

Ps6.04), reflecting softer NII growth in individual lending and higher provisioning. Our 2027E EPS 7.03 6.63

revised forecast implies 13% YoY earnings growth, at the low end of management’s 2028E EPS 8.17 7.52

guidance (Ps5.88–6.03) and 1% below consensus. We also cut our 2026–2028 earnings

estimate by 7% on average to reflect lower interest income and fees, while a softer Ernesto Gabilondo >>

asset quality outlook. Despite these revisions, we still expect revenue growth to outpace Research Analyst

costs and provisions, supporting average earnings growth of ~13% annually.