JunQ shows rare earths processing is hard but long term thesis intact; Reiterate Buy

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JunQ shows rare earths processing is hard but long term thesis intact; Reiterate Buy

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Lynas Rare Earths

JunQ shows rare earths processing is hard

but long term thesis intact; Reiterate Buy

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 23.00 AUD | Price: 15.38 AUD

4QFY26 NdPr miss driven by Mt Weld ore variability 22 July 2026

LYC’s 4QFY26 NdPr 1.86kt missed consensus/BofAe by 15%/16%. Mined ore variability Equity

at Mt Weld adversely affected concentrate chemistry and reduced downstream

processing. We view this as a geometallurgical challenge rather than a structural

Key Changesresource/operational issue; the key challenge is maintaining consistent feedstock

chemistry for downstream chemical processing. LYC says they have identified the issues (A$) Previous Current

and are rectifying with production expected to recover from FY27. LYC is still de-risking Price Obj. 25.50 23.00

an expanded and increasingly complex mine-to-oxide rare earth processing facility. 2026E EPS 0.36 0.30

2027E EPS 0.57 0.59

2028E EPS 0.67 0.65Tempering our ramp up expectations (again)

Reflecting a more conservative Kalgoorlie ramp-up and a slower path to operational 2026E EBITDA (m) 496.3 409.9

stability, we reduce FY27e/FY28e NdPr production to 8.8kt/9.45kt from 9.3kt/10.5kt. Our 2027E EBITDA (m) 871.9 788.1

LT NdPr of 12ktpa from FY29e remains unchanged. We cut FY26e-FY28e EBITDA by 2028E EBITDA (m) 1,022.2 984.5

17%/10%/4%. Our valuation premium moves to 1.3x NPV from 1.5x to reflect execution

risks and the still-limited track record of delivering stable & continuous operating Chen Jiang >>

Research Analyst

performance across an expanded asset base noting the absence of production guidance. Merrill Lynch (Australia)

Our PO declines to A$23/US$15.60 from A$25.50/US$17.60.