Equinor ASA: ‘Hot‘ winter ahead – but in the share price

Research evidence excerpt

Equinor ASA: ‘Hot‘ winter ahead – but in the share price

Accessible version

Equinor ASA

‘Hot’ winter ahead – but in the share price

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 365.00 NOK | Price: 379.60 NOK

Key takeaways 23 July 2026

Equity• We fine-tune our estimates and PO higher after solid 2Q26 results, but reiterate

Neutral with no share price upside

• 2Q26 echoes our view on cash flow upside vs. earnings downside in FY26+ consensus Key Changes

• While we see positive gas price momentum into winter, we see unchanged cash (US$) Previous Current

returns coupled with questions on use of cash Price Obj. NOK320.00 NOK365.00

2026E EPS 4.56 4.60

BofA remains ahead on cash flow but below on earnings 2027E2028E EPSEPS 3.452.99 3.462.98

Following slightly better-than-expected 2Q26 results, we fine-tune our EBITDA

estimates higher by up to ~3% p.a. – although we continue to stay below consensus on Christopher Kuplent >>

earnings while remaining ahead on cash flows: Strong cash conversion in 2Q26 in our Research Analyst

view underlines our stance – with our updated $26bn estimate for 2026 organic CFFO MLI+44 (UK)20 7995 8222

still above both Equinor’s $25bn guidance and VA consensus at $24bn (see Exhibit 4). christopher.kuplent@bofa.com

Matthew Smith >>

Gas storage re-fill + Hormuz disruption = 2H26 TTF upside ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

We reiterate our forecast of Europe’s TTF gas prices swinging higher into 4Q26 – after +44 20 7996 7109

matt.smith1@bofa.com

already more than doubling this year to >$20/mbtu today: As outlined in our recent Oil

Cian Evans-Cowie >>

Gusher, we believe Europe’s gas storage levels remain low and are likely to drive risk Research Analyst

premia higher into an average >$25/mbtu base case TTF price in 4Q26 – driving positive MLI (UK) +44 20 7995 0940