Housing LIRA Expert Call: Potential 1H27 Deceleration, Long Term Drivers Intact

Research evidence excerpt

Housing LIRA Expert Call: Potential 1H27 Deceleration, Long Term Drivers Intact

Update

July 27, 2026 01:28 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMHardline/Broadline/Food Retail | North America Simeon Gutman, CFA

Equity Analyst

Housing LIRA Expert Call: Simeon.Gutman@morganstanley.comJames Egan +1 212 761-3920

Strategist

James.F.Egan@MorganStanley.com +1 212 761-4715

Potential 1H27 Deceleration, Vincent Andrews

Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3293

Long Term Drivers Intact Pedro Gil, CFA

Pedro.Gil@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2022

LIRA suggests repair and remodeling industry demand could Zachary Abraham

slow in 1H27 vs. the ~2% baseline in '26. We believe the industry ResearchZach.Abraham@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-5977

has bottomed, and the rate of growth in '27 is likely to depend Skylar Tennant

heavily on the path of mortgage rates, housing turnover, and big- ResearchSkylar.Tennant1@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-9963

ticket discretionary demand.

Hardline/Broadline/Food Retail

North America

We hosted an expert call on Home Improvement demand with Dr. Rachel Drew, Industry View In-Line

Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing

Studies; Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley’s US Housing Strategist and Co-Head of

Securitized Products Research,; and Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley's Chemicals

Analyst.

The call focused on 1) the latest Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA),

published by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2) the US housing and

affordability outlook, and 3) the relationship between the housing environment and

Home Improvement industry sales. The slide deck from our webcast is embedded

below.

We are Overweight HD and LOW. In the near-term, we see an achievable setup as