DataDig: Holding U tight

Research evidence excerpt

DataDig: Holding U tight

Idea

July 27, 2026 08:54 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

DataDig: Holding U tight R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Charts, analysis, and comparables for the global mining sector. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Uranium fundamentals continue to tighten: Term prices (US$95.5/lb as of June)

Commodities Strategist

continue to be supported by stronger utility contracting and nuclear restart Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

momentum. Our commodities strategists forecast a ~13mlb uranium deficit in 2026,

seeing term prices averaging ~US$97/~US$102.5/lb in 26/27e (see here). Recent

developments also reinforce supply-side risks; Peninsula (Not Covered) withdrew

CY26 guidance at Lance following a slower-than-expected ramp (here), while Cigar

Lake’s brief outage also highlights the fragility of existing supply despite operations

Australia Materials

resuming. Mine growth also remains constrained: Kazatomprom (covered by Chris Asia Pacific

Jiang) production for CY26 at 26.6ktU (MSe) is below company guidance of 27.5– Industry View Attractive

29ktU, reflecting sulphuric acid availability risk. Demand trends also remain Recent Research:

supportive, with EDF extending Heysham 1 and Hartlepool to March 2030 (see Australia Materials: Rare Earths Discussion

here), adding an estimated 28TWh of generation, and India continuing to secure Takeaways: Demand Growth, Western pricing,

long-term uranium supply. Higher term prices should also support carry-trade and Supply Bottlenecks (24 Jul 2026)