Lowering estimates and PT; stronger execution needed to sustain multiples

Research evidence excerpt

Lowering estimates and PT; stronger execution needed to sustain multiples

Update

July 26, 2026 09:43 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+MFractal Analytics Limited | Asia Pacific Gaurav Rateria

Equity Analyst

Lowering estimates and PT; Gaurav.Rateria@morganstanley.comSulabh Govila, CFA +91 22 6118-2237

Sulabh.Govila@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2249

stronger execution needed to Shreshtha Chopra

Research Associate

Shreshtha.Chopra@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2227

sustain multiples Sakshi Rana

What’s Changed Sakshi.Rana@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-1002

Fractal Analytics Limited (FRAL.NS) From To

Price Target Rs1,036.00 Rs871.00

Highlights: 1Q missed on revenues, margins and net income.

Expect revenue growth to decelerate in F27 although the CAGR Fractal Analytics Limited (FRAL.NS, FRACTAL IS)

still remains healthy at 13% over F26-29. We expect adj EBITDA India Technology | India

margins to move to ~20% by F29. Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target Rs871.00

Key Takeaways Up/downside to price target (%) 11

Shr price, close (Jul 24, 2026) Rs786.75

Challenges pertaining to TMT vertical are likely behind with growth returning in 52-Week Range Rs1,118.00-733.70

Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 228

2Q. Ramp-up of large deals & previously won orders drives confidence in 2H. Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rs179,048

EV, curr (mn) Rs177,700

We think 2H could see stronger traction in products business vs Fractal AI Avg daily trading value (mn) Rs687

business, providing visibility on strong margin improvement in 2H. Fiscal Year Ending 03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

EPS (Rs)** 17.19 17.86 24.49 30.33

Weak execution in 1Q drives sharp cuts to F27 estimates: Fractal has started the Prior EPS (Rs)** - 22.89 28.76 34.74

EPS (Rs)§ 14.62 24.25 31.19 38.45